Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 21.161338 23.097835 25.250435 27.845273 30.922550 34.500653 39.045470
2025-01-19 18.952580 21.646996 24.894234 29.196750 34.916929 42.540884 54.036238
2025-01-26 16.817563 19.796359 23.590638 28.976859 36.811329 48.560933 69.524990
2025-02-02 15.396083 18.558943 22.771548 29.110869 39.108970 55.941513 92.184288
2025-02-09 14.350870 17.638765 22.183977 29.379437 41.603845 64.702233 126.496274
2025-02-16 13.468343 16.814352 21.582371 29.460366 43.757134 73.942013 177.285450
2025-02-23 12.620445 15.939113 20.777108 29.039066 44.851057 81.606587 244.219958
2025-03-02 12.004711 15.332816 20.294313 29.053449 46.775227 92.676187 383.717952
2025-03-09 11.423096 14.722176 19.730392 28.818916 48.107393 103.327346 650.414411
2025-03-16 10.892089 14.143704 19.155604 28.467705 49.083010 113.968216 1311.260346
2025-03-23 10.433900 13.641772 18.655784 28.178815 50.133422 126.304816 4889.796703
2025-03-30 10.041772 13.214305 18.239438 27.988564 51.389614 141.489872 NaN
2025-04-06 9.589989 12.672370 17.596818 27.284390 51.174955 150.263678 NaN
2025-04-13 9.485642 12.669696 17.871461 28.488522 56.688352 203.494987 NaN
2025-04-20 9.165534 12.302379 17.480082 28.232736 57.848681 232.793362 NaN
2025-04-27 8.923987 12.048199 17.268889 28.340722 60.247609 284.905427 NaN
2025-05-04 8.719856 11.843162 17.128997 28.588146 63.270441 367.381571 NaN
2025-05-11 8.507597 11.613054 16.925378 28.661250 65.759120 474.746386 NaN
2025-05-18 8.250437 11.295957 16.539492 28.257070 66.315071 561.114108 NaN
2025-05-25 8.061177 11.084050 16.336673 28.269978 68.608616 766.750198 NaN
2025-06-01 7.856172 10.836492 16.050837 28.045591 69.864324 1018.869727 NaN
2025-06-08 7.650969 10.580377 15.734073 27.709867 70.545939 1348.696548 NaN
2025-06-15 7.464336 10.348877 15.452131 27.433685 71.446278 1947.535216 NaN